Asiantaeth yr Amgylchedd - cartref

Pilot study into forecasting bathing water quality

During the 2009 bathing season we ran a pilot study to assess the feasibility of predicting the water quality at ten bathing waters in England and Wales.

How did we make forecasts?

Our research has indicated a rise in contamination at bathing waters in relation to the amount of rainfall in the locality. This is due to both diffuse and point source pollution.

Having a detailed knowledge of individual bathing waters enabled us to estimate what the quality of the bathing water was likely to be, based on rainfall of the previous day. The relationship between rainfall and water quality is specific to a bathing water and varies with rainfall intensity and duration. We analysed the relationship between water quality and rainfall at each site to predict how certain bathing waters reacted to periods of rainfall.

What sites did we trial?

The ten bathing waters chosen for the prediction trial covered a wide geographical distribution and reflected a variety of type of bathing water. They were also known to have an existing relationship between water quality and rainfall and had rain gauges with telemetry which made modelling possible.

 Site  Region  Beach operator (local authority)
 Bognor Regis  Southern  Arun District Council
 Bridlington South Beach  North East  East Riding of Yorkshire Council
 Broadstairs, Viking Bay  Southern  Thanet District Council
 East Looe  South West  East Looe Town Trust / Caradon District Council
 Fleetwood  North West  Wyre Borough Council
 Goodrington  South West  Torbay Council
 Rhyl  Wales  Denbighshire County Council
 Spittal  North East  Northumberland County Council
 Swansea Bay  Wales  City and County of Swansea
 Walton  Anglian  Tendring District Council

What were the findings of the trial?

The findings of the trial have allowed us to assess how the prediction project should be progressed. We will update these pages with details of future trials before the start of 2011.  Download the detailed report: