Findings to date
Following six years of study and working with a wide range of organisations from across the estuary, the project has gained a comprehensive understanding of tidal flood risk on the Estuary now and through this century.
Some of the key project findings to date include:
The current system of flood defences
- The existing defences – already of a higher standard than anywhere else in the country - provide an even greater degree of protection to London and the estuary communities than originally anticipated (Engineers planned for 8 mm/yr sea-level rise, whereas sea-levels are currently rising by 6 mm/yr)
- The current system must continue to be maintained to ensure reliability and reduce major costs in the future
Climate Change
- Sea level rise in the Thames over the next century due to thermal expansion of the oceans could be between 20cm and 88cm; in line with current government guidance.
- There is still much uncertainty over the contribution of polar ice melt to increasing sea level rise. At the extreme it may further raise maximum sea levels up to +2m (including thermal expansion) by the end of the century - although this is thought highly unlikely.
- Climate change is less likely to increase storm surge height and frequency in the North Sea than previously thought
- The worst case (highly unlikely) maximum sea level prediction has been revised down to +2.7 metres by the end of century.
The options for the future
- The Thames Barrier, with some modification, could continue to provide protection to London through this century (based on current climate guidance).
- We are unlikely to see major changes to the existing system of defences until some time after 2070 though we will have to invest more in upgrading the current defence system from around 2030.
- As our worst case climate change scenario has been revised down we are very unlikely to require an outer estuary barrage (tide excluding) in the estuary.
- Spatial planning and emergency preparedness will have an increasing role to play in reducing the risks associated with development in the defended floodplain.
Impacts of climate change on the estuary environment
- We know where important estuary habitats will be lost through rising sea levels and what we need to do to replace them. These habitats are vital to a rich biodiversity and commercial fishery in the estuary.
- A minimum of 1200 hectares need to be replaced.
- We will present options for creating new inter-tidal habitat by realigning the current flood defences in the plan for consultation.
